Longtermism

This note is about medium and long-term future scenarios, trends, implications, and alternatives.

Definitions

"'Longtermism' is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time." Longtermism: An Introduction | Effective Altruism

Premises:

the time frame is thousands of years or more
the claim that the current moment is disproportionately important for the future history as it can lock down irreversible trends (justified?)
the claim that existing efforts are not enough

Issues and Topics

Asymmetries over long time frames
Global/catastrophic risks

Ethical Implications

It is not necessarily clear what the future ethics will be.

Danaher, John, and Jeroen Hopster. ‘The Normative Significance of Future Moral Revolutions’. Futures 144 (2022): 103046. https://doi.org/10/grhshk.

Organisations

Home – Center on Long-Term Risk
Center for Reducing Suffering
Sentientism
Sentience Institute
Effective Altruism
Longview Philanthropy
80,000
Good Judgment, superforecasting reports
Forethought Foundation (MacAskill)
Global Priorities Institute, an academic group at Oxford 9MacAskill)

References

Contrast with our assertion that the expansion of the moral circle based on humans will not suffice and is problematic. See, Forms of Sentience and Future Places

Anthis, Jacy Reese, and Eze Paez. ‘Moral Circle Expansion: A Promising Strategy to Impact the Far Future’. Futures 130 (2021): 102756. https://doi.org/10/grhscc.

Mogensen, Andreas L. ‘Moral Demands and the Far Future’. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 103, no. 3 (2021): 567–85. https://doi.org/10/gn8gnt.

Winter, Christoph, Jonas Schuett, Eric Martínez, Suzanne Van Arsdale, Renan Araújo, Nick Hollman, Jeff Sebo, Andrew Stawasz, Cullen O’Keefe, and Giuliana Rotola. ‘Legal Priorities Research: A Research Agenda’. Scholarly Paper. Rochester: Social Science Research Network, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3931256.

MacAskill, William. What We Owe the Future. New York: Hachette Book Group, Inc, 2022.

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