Delphi
Cf.
The Delphi method functions as a structured communication technique for forecasting and decision-making. This approach employs a panel of experts who participate in multiple question-response rounds. After each round, researchers summarise and share responses with the group, enabling experts to refine their answers based on collective feedback. This iterative process aims to reach consensus or the most accurate forecast.
The method addresses complex problems or questions where precise measurement is difficult and expert judgment becomes necessary
Considerations
Maintaining anonymity among participants can minimise groupthink and allow independent consideration before convergence towards consensus.
Key Applications and Variants
- Classical Delphi: focuses on fact-finding and consensus building
- Policy Delphi: emphasises generating contrasting viewpoints on policy issues
- Decision Delphi: structures decision-making for urgent problems
- Real-time Delphi: conducts the process synchronously, often computer-assisted
- e-Delphi: utilises online platforms for asynchronous communication
Horizon Scanning
Delphi-based horizon scanning is a horizon-scanning workflow in which a wide search for emerging issues is followed by one or more structured, anonymous, iterative rounds of expert scoring, discussion, revision, and re-scoring in order to prioritise issues and make collective sense of uncertain futures.2
“The frequent use of the Delphi methodology may be explained by its ability to ‘crowd-source’ information and build a consensus among participants in a relatively short time frame. This consensus, particularly expert consensus, adds weight to the conclusions drawn from horizon scanning”1
The typical workflow:
- experts scan reports, papers, websites, conferences, and networks
- they submit candidate issues anonymously
- issues are scored against criteria such as novelty, plausibility, and potential impact
- shortlisted issues are investigated
- then the group discusses, revises, and re-scores to produce a final
In futures, horizon scanning is not just signal collection; rather horizon scanning can support “collective sense-making processes” through the identification of signals, “the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,” and “the interpretation of resulting clusters” as a step towards coordinated policy responses.3
In this context, Delphi is one of the tools (along with scanning for weak signals, foresight, etc.) of the synthesis function in collective intelligence.4
Examples
Stanley, Margaret C., Jacqueline R. Beggs, Imogen E. Bassett, Bruce R. Burns, Kim N. Dirks, Darryl N. Jones, Wayne L. Linklater, et al. “Emerging Threats in Urban Ecosystems: A Horizon Scanning Exercise.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13, no. 10 (2015): 553–60. https://doi.org/10.1890/150229. This sits at the intersection of conservation and design. The panel included expertise in “ecophysiology, hydrology, ecology, urban design, environmental physics, population health, policy,” and one of the identified issues was that health-oriented redesign of urban green space could homogenise habitats and threaten biodiversity.
References
Schifano, Julia, and Marlen Niederberger. “How Delphi Studies in the Health Sciences Find Consensus: A Scoping Review.” Systematic Reviews 14, no. 1 (2025): 14. https://doi.org/10/g9htkn.
Veugelers, Rebekka, Menno I. Gaakeer, Peter Patka, and Robbert Huijsman. “Improving Design Choices in Delphi Studies in Medicine: The Case of an Exemplary Physician Multi-Round Panel Study with 100% Response.” BMC Medical Research Methodology 20, no. 1 (2020): 156. https://doi.org/10/gm6fq4.
Footnotes
Wintle, Bonnie C., Mahlon C. Kennicutt Ii, and William J. Sutherland. “Scanning Horizons in Research, Policy and Practice.” In Conservation Research, Policy and Practice, edited by William J. Sutherland, Peter N. M. Brotherton, Zoe Davies G., Nancy Ockendon, Nathalie Pettorelli, and Juliet A. Vickery, 29–47. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020.˄
Hines, Philip, Li Hiu Yu, Richard H. Guy, Angela Brand, and Marisa Papaluca-Amati. “Scanning the Horizon: A Systematic Literature Review of Methodologies.” BMJ Open 9, no. 5 (2019): 1–9. https://doi.org/10/ghq4zx.˄
Könnölä, Totti, Ahti Salo, Cristiano Cagnin, Vicente Carabias, and Eeva Vilkkumaa. “Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning.” Science and Public Policy 39, no. 2 (2012): 222–31. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021.˄
For more, see Akartuna, Eray Arda, Shane D. Johnson, and Amy Thornton. “Enhancing the Horizon Scanning Utility of Futures-Oriented Systematic and Scoping Reviews.” Futures 158 (2024): 103340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103340.˄
Backlinks