Scenarios
This note is about scenario planning and allied approaches.
Cf.
Scenario planning is a way to prepare for different possible futures. It can help organizations, communities, or individuals to anticipate change, identify opportunities and risks, and develop relevant strategies. Scenario planning aims not to predict the future but explore uncertainties and implications of different futures.
Typical steps:
- Define the issue or question.
- Identify key factors or drivers.
- Generate plausible scenarios based on different combinations of the factors or drivers.
- Describe each scenario in detail, including its causes, consequences, and challenges.
- Evaluate the scenarios for their plausibility, relevance, and impact.
- Develop strategies or actions for each scenario, or for a preferred scenario.
- Monitor the external environment for signs of change and update the scenarios as needed.
Benefits:
- Think creatively and critically about the future.
- Challenge assumptions and biases.
- Expand perspectives and explore different possibilities.
- Anticipate potential threats and opportunities.
- Improve your decision-making and resilience.
Iwaniec, David M., Elizabeth M. Cook, Melissa J. Davidson, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Matei Georgescu, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Ariane Middel, David A. Sampson, and Nancy B. Grimm. ‘The Co-Production of Sustainable Future Scenarios’. Landscape and Urban Planning 197 (2020): 103744. https://doi.org/10/ghcgsm.
Mansur, Andressa V., Robert I. McDonald, Burak Güneralp, HyeJin Kim, Jose A. Puppim de Oliveira, Corey T. Callaghan, Perrine Hamel, et al. ‘Nature Futures for the Urban Century: Integrating Multiple Values into Urban Management’. Environmental Science & Policy 131 (2022): 46–56. https://doi.org/10/gp8fjr.
Peterson, Garry D., Graeme S. Cumming, and Stephen R. Carpenter. ‘Scenario Planning: A Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World’. Conservation Biology 17, no. 2 (2003): 358–66. https://doi.org/10/bjpjst.
Tourki, Yousra, Jeffrey Keisler, and Igor Linkov. ‘Scenario Analysis: A Review of Methods and Applications for Engineering and Environmental Systems’. Environment Systems & Decisions 33, no. 1 (2013): 3–20. https://doi.org/10/gss3ds.
This one is by the guy from Shell, so to be treated carefully.
Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company. 1991. Reprint, New York: Crown Currency, 2012.
In Ecology
Lewis, Abigail S. L., Christine R. Rollinson, Andrew J. Allyn, Jaime Ashander, Stephanie Brodie, Cole B. Brookson, Elyssa Collins, et al. “The Power of Forecasts to Advance Ecological Theory.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution 14, no. 3 (2023): 746–56. https://doi.org/10/gqnhw5.
Examples
Oceans
Spijkers, Jessica, Andrew Merrie, Colette C.C. Wabnitz, Matthew Osborne, Malin Mobjörk, Örjan Bodin, Elizabeth R. Selig, et al. ‘Exploring the Future of Fishery Conflict Through Narrative Scenarios’. One Earth 4, no. 3 (2021): 386–96. https://doi.org/10/gjnr94.
Gianelli, Ignacio, Micaela Trimble, Silvana Juri, Nazarena A. Beretta, Denisse Torena, Manuela Acosta, Robert Acosta, et al. ‘Envisioning Desirable Futures in Small-Scale Fisheries: A Transdisciplinary Arts-Based Co-Creation Process’. Ecology and Society 29, no. 1 (2024): 20. https://doi.org/10/gtm6mp.
References
Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Antonie Jetter. ‘A Review of Scenario Planning’. Futures 46 (2013): 23–40. https://doi.org/10/gchkvs.
Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. ‘The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques’. Foresight 9, no. 1 (2007): 5–25. https://doi.org/10/bqqsfh.
Cordova-Pozo, Kathya, and Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette. ‘Types of Scenario Planning and Their Effectiveness: A Review of Reviews’. Futures 149 (2023): 103153. https://doi.org/10/gsvbvx.
Mauksch, Stefanie, Heiko A. von der Gracht, and Theodore J. Gordon. ‘Who Is an Expert for Foresight? A Review of Identification Methods’. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 154 (2020): 119982. https://doi.org/10/gtg8sp.
Kuiper, Jan J., Liam R. Carpenter-Urquhart, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elisa Oteros-Rozas, Linna Fredström, Kinga Psiuk, Codruța Savu, et al. ‘Biosphere Futures: A Database of Social-Ecological Scenarios’. Ecology and Society 29, no. 1 (2024): 19. https://doi.org/10/gtm6mh.
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